What are historical analogies and operational codes?

Historical analogies are political leaders frequently structure their understanding of the world by relying on their interpretations of the lessons of the past. They typically see current situations as analogous to previous events, essentially equating them with previous circumstances they perceive common to both. They then take the “lessons” they learned from the outcome of an earlier situation and use them as guides when making decisions dealing with the new, seemingly similar event. But which past events are deemed relevant to the new situation and the lessons individual associates with those events depends critically on that person’s perceptual lens. So determining which analogy someone chooses can provide important insight into his or her behavior. Operational codes are a construct that includes several different personal characteristics relating to individuals’ views about fundamental factors affecting the course of world affairs. Taken together in the form of an operational code, these provide insight into a person’s basic beliefs about how the world operates. Operational codes include a policy maker’s beliefs about the basic nature of his or her political environment. Those beliefs also include the individual’s preferred foreign policy strategies and tactics.

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